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猪流感将波及世界人口三分之一_教育资源库

猪流感将波及世界人口三分之一
作者:佚名 文章来源:教育资源库 点击数: 更新时间:2009-10-7

猪流感将波及世界人口三分之一

    The swine flu virus will infect a third of the world’s population if it continues to spread at its current rate, scientists warned today, as three more cases were confirmed in the UK.
    今天,英国又确诊了三例猪流感病例,科学家们警告说,如果猪流感继续以现在的速度传播,它将会最终影响全世界三分之一的人口。
    In what the journal Science described as the "first quick and dirty analysis" of swine flu, a study by researchers at Imperial College London predicted the virus was likely to cause an epidemic in the northern hemisphere in the autumn.
    在伦敦帝国学院的调查人员所进行的被《科学日报》称为“第一次快速分析猪流感”的研究中,科学家预测,该病毒今年秋天可能在整个北半球形成大流行。
    One of the authors, the epidemiologist and disease modeller Neil Ferguson, who sits on the World Health Organisation’s emergency committee for the outbreak, said the virus had "full pandemic potential".
    调查报告的作者之一、世界健康组织突发疾病委员会成员、流行病学专家及疾病模型专家尼尔·弗格森说,这种病毒具有“大流行的全部潜质”。
    Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, he said: "It is likely to spread around the world in the next six to nine months, and when it does so, it will affect about one-third of the world’s population.
    在BBC电台的《今日》节目中,他说:“猪流感可能会在接下来的六至九个月内传至全世界,如果真的如此,那它将影响全球近三分之一的人口。”
    "To put that into context, normal seasonal flu probably affects around 10% of the world’s population every year, so we are heading for a flu season which is perhaps three times worse than usual--not allowing for whether this virus is more severe than normal seasonal flu viruses."
    “相比之下,一般的季节性流感每年只影响全球十分之一人口,因此,今年我们所面临的是一个比正常年份可能槽糕三倍的流感季节——而且还没有考虑是否这种病毒会比正常的季节性流感病毒更难对付。”
    The Health Protection Agency announced three more confirmed cases of the virus in the UK, bringing the total to 68. The three patients--two children and one adult from London--all had close contact with previously confirmed cases.
    继健康防护署又宣布增加三例新的猪流感确诊病例后,英国的确诊人数达到了68人。这三例新的病例——来自伦敦的两名儿童和一名成人——都与前面已确诊的病人有过密切接触。
    Today’s study estimated the contagiousness of the disease by analysing the number of people travelling to Mexico who became infected, and comparing that with a study of a Mexican village where the disease has spread. The research also examined how the virus was mutating.
    今天的研究通过对在墨西哥旅游而受到感染的人数的分析,再对比墨西哥一个村庄疾病传播的研究,对该病毒的接触传染力进行了估计。调查还分析了病毒是如何进行变异的。
    It estimated that swine flu had killed between 0.4% and 1.4% of its victims in Mexico. The report’s lead author, Christophe Fraser, said it was too early to predict what the death rate was likely to be outside Mexico. "My hunch is that the death rate will be lower elsewhere--Mexico has underlying issues with respiratory disease," he said.
    据估计,猪流感的死亡率在墨西哥的感染者中已经达到了0.4%至1.4%。调查报告的主要作者克里斯托夫·弗雷泽说,现在预测墨西哥以外地区的死亡率还为时太早,“我觉得其它地方的死亡率会比墨西哥小,因为墨西哥对呼吸道传染疾病的处理有些问题。”他说。
    The researchers

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